ZacG

Do you still think #Bitcoin is a volatile, environmentally damaging, Ponzi-bubble lacking intrinsic value?
If so, this episode is for you.
Join Bram and I as we break down prevalent misconceptions about #Bitcoin    showing that it's not a simple black-and-white matter.
https://youtu.be/JR9Tr7TE1Mg?si=SytcVJ0kwBIEEbMd

2023-10-12 23:39:26

My latest article for Theya (YC) is now live and covers recent turbulence in U.S. Treasury Markets.
After a relatively stable decade, yields on 10-Year Treasury Bonds soared to 4.88% last week, marking a 16 year high.
A confluence of factors—Federal Reserve Policy decisions, mounting concerns surrounding U.S. debt and deficits, and the forthcoming issuance of fresh treasuries—are all playing a part.
Should yields on 10-Year Treasuries push above 5%, it makes the onset of a recession all the more likely.
Do you think yields will continue their ascent? Let me know in the comments below 👇
https://blog.theya.us/turbulence-in-u-s-treasury-markets-q3-2023/

2023-09-27 20:07:12

A few weeks ago, I finished reading Ray Dalio's book "The Changing World Order" which offers a comprehensive analysis of global economic and political dynamics. While the book is well written and offers key insights on the current state of the world, I couldnt help feeling like something was missing.
Most notably, an analysis of #Bitcoin and it's potential impact on the evolving world order is completely absent. This omissions can be seen as a significant flaw in his analysis for several reasons 🧵👇
Firstly, #Bitcoin represents a shift in the traditional financial paradigm. Dalio explains the historical rise and fall of nations and emphasizes the importance of economic systems and currency dynamics, but doesn't recognize Bitcoin as a decentralized digital currency that challenges the very foundation of these systems. Bitcoin's adoption have the potential to reshape the global financial landscape and the economic systems we use, making it an important factor to consider when discussing changing world orders.
Dalio also highlights the vulnerability of fiat currencies to devaluation from excessive money printing. He emphasizes the impact of currency devaluation on a nations economic stability, and how hard money provides the stability needed to emerge as a world power, yet neglects to mention #Bitcoin as a hedge against debasement due to it's limited supply of 21 million coins.
#Bitcoin could theoretically provide a neutral global reserve currency that cannot suffer debasement and thus can stand the test of time. In this way, Bitcoin has the potential to break the cycle of monetary crises stemming from currency debasement that have plagued nations through history.
Bitcoin's potential also extends beyond finance. It is a technology that enables borderless transactions, financial inclusion, censorship resistance, and wealth preservation. These characteristics give #Bitcoin the potential to disrupt traditional power structures, empower individuals, reshape global trade and redefine how we interact in the digital economy. Ignoring Bitcoin's impact is to overlook an important factor that can disrupt current power dynamics.
In the book, Ray Dalio details the transitions of power between geographic nations who in turn become the global reserve currency and financial hub of the world. An important detail to consider is that the emergence of #Bitcoin could mean that the next world order is not based on a geographic country but rather a collection of individuals, firms, and countries. This new paradigm would mean economic power is not tied to a specific nation state but rather a collective of those who chose to adopt #Bitcoin first.
While Dalio's book offers very valuable insights and historical context on how the world has worked, it's omission of #Bitcoin results in a notable limitation of his theory on repeating cycles of changing world orders. Understanding the emergence and potential of #Bitcoin as a globally accessible and neutral currency, it's ability to reshape power structures and geopolitical dynamics, and empower those who adopt it first are crucial to understand the dynamics at play in the 21st century.
I highly recommend reading Dalio's book, however, as you make your way through it, be sure to think critically about how #Bitcoin can fit into the changing world order we're currently experiencing.
https://image.nostr.build/7181af01cfa72f36f0d47d2f61cb769169f1dfbe45c6217b0bf07117cd81bab4.jpg

2023-09-22 22:55:22

Gary Gensler, head of the SEC, is secretly a #Bitcoin Maximalist 🧵
Don't believe me? Read on👇
Not many people know this, but during his time at MIT, Gensler's fascination with #Bitcoin was ignited as he taught a course on blockchain and money. Little did he know that this was the start of a hidden journey into the heart of #Bitcoin. He immersed himself in the intricacies of Bitcoin, recognizing its potential to disrupt traditional finance and empower individuals.
As he rose to the position of SEC chairman, Gensler found himself in a delicate position. He couldn't openly champion #Bitcoin maximalism due to his regulatory responsibilities, but he couldn't abandon his beliefs either. His regulatory decisions, such as clarifying that #bitcoin is the only commodity among cryptos, were part of a covert mission to advance the cause of #Bitcoin while condemning altcoins as unregistered securities.
One particularly intriguing aspect of Gensler's actions is his reluctance to approve a #Bitcoin spot ETF. But, when you think about it, it all starts to make sense. He's not obstructing progress; he's ensuring that individuals have a fair chance to accumulate #Bitcoin before institutions dominate the market. He also understands the importance of self custody in #Bitcoin and would rather individuals take full control over their funds rather than own paper Bitcoin.
Gensler knows that institutions could flood the market if an ETF we're approved, driving up Bitcoin's price. By delaying the ETF approval, he's providing a window of opportunity for retail investors to accumulate #Bitcoin at more accessible prices, preserving the democratic and decentralized nature of Bitcoin.
In conclusion, Gary Gensler's covert journey from MIT professor to SEC chairman was driven by a hidden passion for #Bitcoin maximalism. His actions as a regulator, while enigmatic, are guided by a desire to protect the interests of everyday Bitcoiners and individuals, and allow them to participate in the #Bitcoin revolution before institutions do.
https://image.nostr.build/ef1e8d64bb59481d3c1f93440c8154e3096a44254f8953b37e8d2ec3b818fcf0.jpg

2023-09-18 18:32:42

Is #Bitcoin a Public Good?
In economics, a public good is defined as a good that is both non-excludable and non-rivalrous.
For a good to be non-excludable, it must be very difficult or impossible to exclude individuals from using it.
Bitcoin tends to fit this definition quite well, as it is one of the most accessible goods in the world. Anyone can participate in the Bitcoin network and use it for transactions or other purposes without needing permission, and it's challenging to prevent someone from downloading a Bitcoin wallet and acquiring some Bitcoin.
While technically it is not accessible by everyone due to availability and regulations of on/off ramps and internet availability #bitcoin more or less fits this definition.
For a good to be non-rivalrous, one individuals usage of the good cannot reduce its availability for others.
Once again #Bitcoin fits this definition quite well. Bitcoin, it is non-rivalrous to the extent that one person holding and using Bitcoin does not inherently reduce its availability for others. The blockchain technology underlying Bitcoin allows multiple users to transact simultaneously without significantly affecting each other's ability to use it. Bitcoin's divisibility also ensures there are more than enough satoshis to go around.
While one could argue increased fees in blockspace could lead to exclusion of some individuals, layer 2 protocols like the Lightning Network address these concerns quite well.
Overall, I think it's clear #Bitcoin is more a public good than it is not, especially when you consider it's truly global and decentralized nature alongside it's non-excludability and non-rivalrous attributes.
While it may not fit the definition perfectly, I think this points to the fact that #Bitcoin is fundamentally unique and novel. Many established definitions and concepts within economics and beyond struggle to encapsulate the groundbreaking essence that Bitcoin brings to the table.
Do you think #Bitcoin is a public good?
https://image.nostr.build/4748f0dfac6d010107fe57fd4b1eaa428670f74c7423d0cb2791db964a807ae7.jpg

2023-08-15 21:47:37

As we enter the latter half of 2023, debates surrounding the possibility of a recession are only increasing.
In my latest article, I break down 7 key economic indicators hinting towards a slowing economy 🧵👇
1️⃣ Yield Curve Inversions have been a very reliable indicator of a slowing economy. In fact, since 1969 a yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession. In June of 2022 the 10yr and 2yr Treasury yields inverted begging the question—where is the recession?
2️⃣ Large Bank Failures since the Great Financial Crisis in the fall of 2008 echoes historical precedence and highlights vulnerability in the financial structure. It was 6 months after the failure of Bear Sterns in March of 2008 before the recession arrived in full force—could history repeat itself?
3️⃣ One of the Fastest Interest Rate Hike in US History has pushed the federal funds rate to decade highs and imposed higher borrowing costs of individuals and businesses alike. The economy may face potential headwinds in adjusting to tighter credit conditions.
4️⃣ The tendency for the Unemployment Rate to bottom before a recession raises questions about our currently low unemployment rate. While it may seem positive on the surface it could mask underlying weakness in the economy that manifests as the recession unfolds.
5️⃣ A Declining Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) suggests a contraction in the manufacturing and services industry and has served as an early warning sign of impending recessions many times. This worrying trend may further contribute to a slowing economy.
6️⃣ Tightening Credit Conditions from aggressive interest rate hikes are reaching levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 and a fall in commercial loans has been evident. While tightnening credit itself does not predict a recession, it's correlation with economic downturns should not be ignored.
7️⃣ The Fed Predicting a Mild Recession adds further credibility to the possibility of a recession on the horizon. As the central banks responsible for guiding policy their awareness of the risks speaks heavily to the possibility of a slowing economy.
Together these indicators paint a clear picture of economic challenges ahead. While the exact timing and severity of a recession is difficult to predict, it is crucial to remain aware of the risks we face.
Check out my full article for an in-depth analysis of these economic indicators and what it means for the economy.
https://open.substack.com/pub/zacguignard/p/2023-macro-outlook-7-signs-of-a-looming?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=26emfn

2023-08-15 20:00:53

⚠️2023 #Macro Outlook⚠️
Contrary to the appearance of a new bull market, we're actually witnessing the most remarkable bear market rally ever.
In my latest article, I uncover 7 key #economic indicators pointing to an impending #recession 👇
https://open.substack.com/pub/zacguignard/p/2023-macro-outlook-7-signs-of-a-looming?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=26emfn

2023-07-18 17:07:41

Since 1971 and the abandonment of the #Gold Standard...
📈 US M2 increased over 3,150%
🏠 US home prices surged over 1,850%
📊 S&P 500 returned over 20,000%
🥇 Gold returned over 5,150%
In my latest article I review how decades of loose monetary policy have contributed to the everything bubble and explore how #Bitcoin stands ready to absorb the monetary premiums that have built up in assets over decades of monetary manipulation.
https://open.substack.com/pub/zacguignard/p/bitcoins-role-in-deflating-the-everything?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=26emfn

2023-06-16 20:41:11

Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme
Bitcoin is too volatile
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value
Bitcoin is only used by criminals
Bitcoin will be hacked
Bitcoin is bad for the environment
Bitcoin is a bubble
Actually,
#Bitcoin is the most misunderstood technology of our time.
My latest article addresses these common misconceptions and provides key facts to help uncover the legitimacy of these claims.
https://open.substack.com/pub/zacguignard/p/bitcoin-myths?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=26emfn

2023-06-09 22:13:03

Have you heard of the Japanese real estate bubble in the late 1980s? It was an unprecedented speculative frenzy. Prices soared, fueled by easy credit and rampant investor speculation. Japan seemed unstoppable, but little did they know what awaited them👇
In the early 1990s, disaster struck. The bubble burst, causing a devastating collapse in real estate and stock prices. The trigger was monetary tightening policies implemented by the Bank of Japan to curb inflation. The effects were far-reaching.
Property values plummeted, leaving investors and financial institutions with enormous losses. The country entered a prolonged period of economic contraction known as the "Lost Decade." Low growth, high unemployment, and stagnant wages became the new normal.
The bursting bubble exposed the vulnerabilities of Japanese banks. They had heavily invested in speculative real estate loans and faced insolvency as asset values tanked. Government intervention was required to stabilize the banking sector.
Now, let's shift our focus to Canada. While it's a different country and time, there are notable parallels. Canada currently faces a private debt situation that bears some resemblance to Japan's bubble era.
Canadian households have accumulated significant debt, driven by low interest rates and easy access to credit. This debt is primarily concentrated in mortgages, similar to how Japanese investors flocked to real estate investments during their bubble.
If there's a sudden shock to the Canadian economy, such as a sharp rise in interest rates or a housing market correction, the private debt burden could become a ticking time bomb. Just as in Japan, the bursting of the bubble could have severe consequences.
Fast forward to today, and we're witnessing interest rates rise at an unprecedented pace. The Bank of Canada recently raised rates by 25 basis points, despite Canada's private debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 230%. This is even higher than Japan's peak during their bubble.
What does this all mean? While the exact consequences are uncertain, it's crucial to note the eerie similarities between Canada now and Japan during their bubble's peak in the 1990s. Both countries exhibit high levels of private debt and face tightening monetary policies.
If the Canadian housing market corrects due to interest rates surging rapidly, it could potentially trigger a similar chain of events as Japan experienced. High private debt burdens become unsustainable, asset values decline, and the economy faces significant headwinds.
What do you think happens next?

2023-06-02 23:21:57

Everytime I get zapped I'm reminded of how much better nostr is than twitter.

2023-06-02 23:15:23

Just finished writing a midterm exam for econ.
Imagine my surprise when I flipped the page and encountered a question asking me to make the case for #Bitcoin as money.
That's ~60 econ students who had to ask themselves today, IS bitcoin money? Bound to get some people thinking.

2023-06-01 20:21:27

$305 trillion in global debt, but what have we truly gained?
📚 Have we increased access to quality education for all?
⚖️ Is there a fair and just global economic system?
🍽️ Does everyone have access to food and water?
☮️ Is global peace a reality?
🌍 What about the state of our environment?
💰 Are wealth disparities narrowing?
👩‍⚕️ Has healthcare become more accessible and affordable?
🌐 Is internet access widespread and affordable?
👥 Are human rights respected and protected?
🛣️ Are our roads in better condition?
💡 Has innovation thrived?
🚀 How far have we advanced in interplanetary travel?

2023-05-22 15:37:18

In my latest article, I delve into the crucial subject of federal debt, exploring its nature and the factors contributing to its significant growth over the past few decades. By establishing a connection between debt and inflation, I aim to highlight the inherent inflationary nature and long-term unsustainability of an economic system reliant on perpetual debt accumulation.
I invite you to read the article below to gain a comprehensive understanding of this complex issue👇
https://open.substack.com/pub/zacguignard/p/decoding-the-trifecta-debt-money?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android

2023-05-10 22:23:51

Excited to share my recent interview with PlebUnderground and DNComply where I discuss my experience as president of a university #Bitcoin club and the role university clubs play in promoting Bitcoin education and awareness.
I first discovered Bitcoin during the pandemic. As an economics major I was instantly fascinated by the idea of a decentralized, peer to peer currency with a fixed supply. I became convinced that Bitcoin is one of the most important innovations of our time. This inspired me to become president of the club.
Our clubs main goal is to offer an open space for discussion and education about Bitcoin. We want to provide the necessary tools to help people better understand and study Bitcoin, and to start as many conversations surrounding Bitcoin as we can.
By bringing together students, academics, and industry experts Bitcoin clubs can deepen our collective understanding of Bitcoin and speed us towards hyperbitcoinization.
If you're currently enrolled in university and are interested in starting a Bitcoin club, make sure to gain a strong understanding of the topic, host regular events and collaborate with other clubs. I highly encourage anyone in university to consider starting a Bitcoin club. Together we can make the world a better place!
Check out the full interview below to learn more about my journey with Bitcoin, my role as president and the importance of university clubs in promoting Bitcoin education and awareness.👇
https://open.substack.com/pub/plebunderground/p/how-and-why-to-start-a-university?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android

2023-04-05 18:18:58

3 things I've learned as president of a university #Bitcoin club👇
1️⃣ Bitcoin is still crypto in the minds of the masses. We have yet to reach an inflection point where it's widely understood that bitcoin is fundamentally different from the array of "cryptocurrencies" that have come after it. Education will play a key role here.
2️⃣ Increased Bitcoin education is critical for mass adoption. We are currently in a stage where everyone has heard of bitcoin but very few actually understand it. This has led to bitcoin being widely misunderstood.
The good news is people are hungry for information. Therefore, bitcoin education could not be more important than it is today. If you're on the fence about starting some form of btc education, whether a website, writing, or speaking, just do it! Your work will be appreciated.
3️⃣ We are fighting an information war with mainstream media. Most people are still rife with misconceptions about scalability, environmental implications, etc. This is an uphill battle. If bitcoin is to succeed, each of us will need to do our part to make that future a reality.

2023-03-30 18:13:55

What is the broken window fallacy?
First coined by French economist Frédéric Bastiat in 1850, this is one of the most common fallacies in economics and is still incredibly relevant today as most policy decisions are made with no regard to opportunity costs👇
Suppose you are the owner of a bakery, one day someone throws a rock through your front window and it shatters.
The broken window fallacy mistakenly believes that this damage to property will result in positive economic effects by creating jobs and stimulating economic growth.
This assumption is flawed because it ignores the opportunity cost of repairing the broken window. The money you must now spend to repair your window is exactly how much less money you now have to spend on anything else such as buying other goods or investing in new technologies.
As such, the economic activity generated by fixing the broken window is completely offset by the economic activity that could have been generated had the window not been broken in the first place.
The net effect is that the economy is just as well off as it was before.
This fallacy highlights the importance of understanding and considering the opportunity cost of all actions, especially when involving policy, business, and environmental decisions.