Building Common Futures, a new energy transition consultancy. 35+ years of experience in the energy transition. Posting here on energy, climate &more 100% renewable energy globally by 2050 is possible! Views my own. ( searchable ) Expert in: the energy transition Driven by: the need for climate action Closely follows: Ukraine's liberation drive Lives in: Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Published at
2024-09-15T13:56:17Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun In our rapidly changing climate, clinging on to "1-in-100 year event" characterizations - based on statistics from the stable era - have been reduced to a description of how unusual the event was back in those days. It's a what-used-to-be-1-in-100- year event now. No more. #extremeweather #climate #ClimateChange npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Delays before the start: Dutch government just shifted €0.9 billion in start-up expenses for two #nuclear power plants from 2026 to 2028, indicating that the money will only be needed by then. Planned completion by 2035 increasingly unlikely. https://www.nu.nl/klimaat/6328650/bouw-kerncentrales-nu-al-vertraagd-kabinet-trekt-portemonnee-twee-jaar-later.html #NuclearPower npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun n just the past 4 days, St. Pölten in Austria got more precipitation than in the wettest (incl. snow) 91-day autumn recorded so far, back in 1950! And after a fifth day of rain, the total is now over 400 mm. That's extreme. #ClimatechangeisWaterchange https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/149/249/381/370/553/original/da21a45a405e77a5.png npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Record warm Mediterranean, but are the central European floods caused by climate change? Reporting on this is a bit like: Drunk guy drives through village at 100 km/h, slams car into building. "Well, it's very hard to ascribe any single incident to the combination of being drunk and driving at double the speed limit, but we can say that if you're driving drunk a lot at those speeds, the chances of hitting a building will increase." npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Dutch meteorologist Amara Onwuka on how climate change causes ongoing flooding in Europe: 1. Wavier jet stream brings cold air down through W-Europe and warm air up through E-Europe, low pressure area stuck in between for days. 2. Warm Mediterranean water loads air with moisture. https://www.rtl.nl/nieuws/video/76d7f39f-8a73-424f-8d0a-0ea44abd084f/noodweer-europa-gevolg-klimaatverandering-dit76d7f39f-8a73-424f-8d0a-0ea44abd084f?utm_source=rtl.nl&utm_medium=appios&utm_id=shareVideoURL #floods #extremeweather #climate #climatechange https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/143/681/906/282/808/original/2a3b0f8b3634bb9a.png npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun "Help us by allowing us to sell more cars of the past" hardly seems a winning strategy. npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun European car manufacturers, clinging on to fossil fuel cars and SUVs, got behind in electric vehicles. Now they want a delay in the lowering of legal limits for the average emissions of cars they sell, to reduce the share of EVs required to meet those. https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/les-constructeurs-europeens-demandent-un-repit-sur-l-automobile-electrique-20240913 Via @npub1d9g…2dwa #ev #cars #emissions npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Average annual growth rate in the past decade (2013-2023) of installed solar PV capacity, for countries in the top-15 of largest capacity today: 1. Poland +141% per year 2. Vietnam +128% per year 3. Brazil +123% per year 4. India +47% per year 5. Netherlands +43% per year 6. China +42% per year Graph via Olof van der Gaag! #solar #solarpower #renewables https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/126/559/847/535/214/original/094cc73b9e2dd750.jpeg npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Biodiversity in the Netherlands is crashing, and one of the factors is high nitrogen deposition. New Dutch Minister Wiersma (although from 'farmers party' BBB) will now take measures to reduce livestock numbers. #biodiversity #nitrogen #farming #agriculture https://nos.nl/l/2536840 npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun No, just helping Trump/Vance a bit. npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun The August average of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa was ~423.0 ppm, that's 3.3 ppm higher than last year. We're still in a rapid growth phase! #co2 #ClimateChange #globalwarming https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/115/115/051/136/910/original/b16a4308ae037035.png npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun 2/3 in transportation, and much of the other uses can be replaced too. https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/111/935/528/456/272/original/98ea736bdc843b18.png npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Calculation: EU imports 480 million tonnes of oil (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Oil_and_petroleum_products_-_a_statistical_overview&oldid=315177#Imports_of_crude_oil) That's 3,500 million barrels (almost 10 million barrels/day) At the current oil price of $72, that's $250 billion/year. And divided by 31.5 million seconds/year, that gets you to $8,000 per second. npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun That's $8,000 per second, day and night. npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun When considering hundreds of billions of investments in Europe's energy transition: the EU currently sends around $250 billion per year to oil exporters around the world, and then burns the oil, and then sends $250 billion the following year again. Burn and repeat. npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Weather presenter and climate expert @PKuipersMunneke on this weekend's abnormal floods in Morocco's desert: possibly caused by the extremely warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. #ClimatechangeisWaterchange https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/108/978/395/700/536/original/81a808169a127602.jpg npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Thanks, corrected now. npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun This year's estimate from [@stepien_przemek](https://bird.makeup/users/stepien_przemek ) : Solar in Poland is already probably at over 20 GW (with less than 1 GW back in 2019) with 19,233 GW at the end of June. npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun Solar PV is booming in Poland too: installed capacity grew by a factor of 10 in just four years! The 2 GW mark was reached sometime in 2020, and the 20 GW mark was probably reached this summer. #renewableenergy #solar #solarpower https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/103/702/650/884/510/original/fc86ed24a6c54870.png npub1sgjhacw0h48zjf3la38c90fydtnlq2uty0fyrff9tmmag98urpyqrxvpjx Kees van der Leun And of course, the Dutch special interest scientist was also hosted by the 'scientific institute' of Baudet's far-right FvD, two years ago. For a lecture titled "Nitrogen policies as state terror". https://sfo3.digitaloceanspaces.com/cdn.mastodon.energy/media_attachments/files/113/095/792/154/914/274/original/e7a897614a7c8bef.png